Filed under: U.S. Politics
In the first politically relevant chance for Republicans to get some “good numbers” (albeit in from an insignificant sample size in a largely pointless escapade), former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won the day, clinching the GOP’s New Hampshire straw poll with 35% of the 273 votes cast. That’s not a surprising outcome, as Romney’s base of support in Massachusetts is considerable, so it may be more instructive, in this case, to look at who didn’t win (I know, I know, the title was “Mitt’s It,” and now he isn’t really it, sorry Mittheads).
Who didn’t come in second place is any Republican who’s presidential ambitions are anything more than idealistic fantasy. By which I mean, the Ron Paul revolution continues. Paul, crushed as he was by Romney (netting just 11% to Mitt’s 35%) nonetheless finished as the runner-up. This, much like the Romney win, is probably not especially indicative of anything one wouldn’t expect going in; the grassroots network of Ron Paul supporters tend to give him a lot of sway in smaller, local oriented polling environments like these, sometimes to the chagrin of the more mainstream conservatives participating.
What’s more interesting, seeing as Ron Paul hasn’t a shoehorn’s chance in a sandal shop of winning the nomination, are the results that shake out after him. Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty came in third, with 8%- just a notch ahead of reality TV star and half-term governor Sarah Palin at 7%. Pawlenty has undergone something of a national media blitz lately, under the guise of promoting his new book “Courage to Stand,” which is, needless to say, a blindingly trite title. Pawlenty’s appeal from an image standpoint, it would seem, is that he’s neither off the deep end of the conservative and anti-intellectual spectrum like a Palin, Bachmann, or DeMint, nor is he as vitriolic in his rhetorical style.
Should all the talk about a more civil political discourse last (for the record, the official editorial opinion of The Crater is that the pendulum of a tragedy always swings back, and we’ve probably only got another couple weeks tops), that could play to his advantage, but make no mistake; he is a hard-right social conservative. He even claimed to want to reinstate the military’s ban on openly serving gays and lesbians, which is about as tone-deaf and politically inane a position as I can imagine a presidential hopeful staking out for themselves. He also suffers from being too transparently handled by image consultants- unless, of course, you seriously believe he unwinds at the end of a long day by visiting hockeyfights.com.
“Occasionally, if I really need a good mental break and I can’t get out on the ice for one of those old-timers’ games, I’ll sit at the computer when I’m home at night and pop over to hockeyfights.com to watch a few of the latest videos… watching two guys, gloves down, helmets off, pounding each other while the ref stands back and lets it happen.” (from “Courage to Stand”)
I grant you I can’t be positive, but given that presidential hopefuls overtly and shamelessly try to remake themselves to improve their odds, I’ll just say it: I don’t believe for a hot minute that Tim Pawlenty watches hockey fights to chill out. At best, it might be a chance to make him seem a little more manly while co-opting Sarah Palin’s hockey-mom mantle. At worst… well, it could be true!
Behind P&P, the inimitable Michelle Bachmann tied for fifth place at 5%, along with her “Tea Party caucus” pal Jim DeMint. Somebody I’ve never heard of (that Politico refers to as “pizza mogul Herman Cain”) finished next with 4%, followed by a smattering of familiar conservative names at 3%; Huckabee, Santorum (yeah, right), Daniels, Pence, and Christie. Notably president-y looking Senator John Thune, along with President Obama’s ambassador to China, Jon Huntsman, finished with no votes, earning them the indignity of being established Republican names who lost to Donald Trump, who netted 1%. I can’t imagine establishment darling Haley Barbour, for that matter, is that happy with his nil performance. Considering the level of institutional conservative enthusiasm for him, a sign of such poor connection with the New Hampshire GOP is staggering to his prospects (though not as much as the credible perception of him as a racist).
Taking full view of the Republican field as it likely stands now, warts and extremists and all, I frankly see little impediment to a Romney win. Paul is too extreme, Palin is too self-centered (and proud of her anti-intellectualism), and her base overlaps fatally with Bachmann’s. Rick Santorum went from mainstream conservative to extreme conservative in a half-decade’s worth of public opinion drift, and he doesn’t seem to realize it yet. Mike Huckabee is somewhat charming, but extremely hard-right, and not to be crude, but he’s regaining enough weight that it may be a prohibitive issue for him (I don’t like it, but image does matter). As much as I’ve railed against the idea in the past, it may end up true that Tim Pawlenty, who’s always struck me as a profoundly “meh” political figure (judging by charisma, which is so important for a candidate) may be the biggest hurdle in Romney’s way.
So, maybe I was right from the very beginning.
Mitt’s it!
2 Comments so far
Leave a comment
The Crater 
Hey Chris,
Herman Cain is an interesting case, he could be this year’s version of Ron Paul (not ideologically, but as a web darling who, while he won’t win, will surprise everybody with massive fundraising hauls and semi-respectable caucus turnouts). I occasionally go to redstate.com just for laughs, and he’s legitimately the co-favorite of that site along with Palin. Since redstate has proven remarkably powerful in Republican primaries (Christine O’Donnell comes to mind), I think there’s a decent chance Cain will get 10-15% of the primary vote in some states despite nobody knowing who he is.
Comment by Mac Z January 23, 2011 @ 6:47 pmHey Mac! If you have any kind of blog or editorial opinion page somewhere, you should tell me. People could do well to hear more of your thoughts on issues.
I admit now that I was being a little duplicitous about Herman Cain, in that I had actually heard the name, but I hadn’t heard it in any meaningful political capacity. I was under the impression initially he was a fringe, right-wing radio candidate, but recently I’ve heard his name popping up more and more. I’m of the mind that to seriously threaten Obama, though, the Republicans have to be all hands on deck (which they’re great at in congress), and I’m not seeing that possibility with their 2012 candidates.
The level of division amidst the Republican party’s contenders as far as rhetorical and political vision is so stark right now that I suspect the abundance of candidates is going to lead to a “lost cycle” for the party, wherein they nominate an unelectable candidate, or one critically weakened by the primary process. I feel more confident in Obama coasting to a second term than virtually anything else in politics right now.
Comment by chris January 26, 2011 @ 11:08 pm